From: https://www.nbcnews.com/business/economy/april-2024-us-jobs-report-labor-market-rcna150239
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America's job market increasingly appears to be splitting into two tracks, economists say, alongside a steady demand for skilled workers and a flagging interest in hiring more "knowledge-based" professionals.
The evidence can be found in the data, which shows a higher unemployment rate for professional and business services workers, and a lower one for people who work in manufacturing.
"It's a buyer's market for brain and a seller's market for brawn," said Aaron Terrazas, chief economist at the jobs and workplace search site Glassdoor.
On Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported the latest monthly payroll data for the U.S. economy. Total employment rose by 175,000 in April. The unemployment rate rose slightly to 3.9% from 3.8% in March.
That came in below estimates of 240,000 jobs for April.
The softness in the jobs report was greeted with some positive reactions. Stock futures jumped after the news. Concerns about the U.S. economy have been focused on overheating — whether inflation will continue to rise and force the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates higher in an effort to slow the economy and bring rising prices under control.
Jason Furman, who served as President Barack Obama's top economic advisor, said on CNBC's "Squawk Box" that it was a "goldilocks" report, showing an economy that could be headed to the soft landing of reasonable inflation and low unemployment.
“The bottom line is this report is quite reassuring," said Furman, who now teaches at Harvard.
It's not that America is only — or even mostly — producing low-wage jobs. The health care industry continues to lead the employment boom, with an approximately 4.5% gain in payrolls over the past year, equating to some 750,000 new jobs. Other industries seeing strong growth include government jobs, certain sectors of social work, travel, tourism and the arts — alongside some manufacturing sectors.
But the overall labor market remains at something of a standstill, as seen in a report earlier this week showing the hiring rate continuing to drift sideways. At the same time, the rate of workers quitting or being laid off is also not showing much change. Economists led by Guy Berger at The Burning Glass Institute research group call it the "great stay."
"It’s a good time to have a job, but a not-so-good time to be actively looking for one," he wrote in his Substack newsletter Wednesday.
Many American consumers have also begun reporting signs of a deteriorating job situation. In its latest report on consumer confidence, the Conference Board business group said respondents to its monthly survey reported feeling less positive about the current labor market and more concerned about future business conditions, job availability and income.
That echoed findings of the New York Federal Reserve's monthly survey of consumer expectations, which reported more survey respondents feeling pessimistic about losing their job or finding a new job. Respondents rated the average probability of losing their job in the next 12 months at almost 1 in 6 — above pre-pandemic levels and the highest reading since September 2020.
"On the margin, businesses are not as eager to add staff," said Sarah House, managing director and senior economist at Wells Fargo.
